Analysts who spoke to CNBC agreed that Erdogan is unlikely to suffer a big upset in this year’s voting. He has continuously held the post of either prime minister or president since 2003.
That said, opposition parties are working together more effectively than in the past, analysts say. For example, the People’s Democratic Party is opting out of several races in order to help candidates from a broader opposition bloc led by two others, the Republican People’s Party and the Good Party.
The closest contests, polls show, will be in Ankara and Istanbul, cities that Erdogan’s AKP has held for 25 years.
“If the AKP loses to an opposition party challenger, it will be a symbolic indication that the ruling party is struggling to maintain its appeal with the urban elite,” said Emily Hawthorne, an analyst at risk consulting firm Stratfor.
Agathe Demarais, principal Europe economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said she believes a defeat for AKP in Turkey’s political and commercial hubs is “unlikely at this point.”
But she said that if AKP loses Istanbul and Ankara, “financial markets would react negatively and the lira would depreciate sharply against the U.S. dollar and the euro, possibly triggering another currency crash.”
Meanwhile, Ash of Bluebay Asset Management sees a “high probability” that the AKP loses Ankara, putting the odds at 50-50. He estimated just a 30 percent chance that Erdogan’s party loses Istanbul.
from Just News Viral https://ift.tt/2uvWS4E
0 Comments